The ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia has offered significant lessons for the future, particularly for nations involved in territorial disputes with their neighbors. These lessons span a wide range, from technological advancements to strategic doctrines. Similarly, the rift between the United States and Ukraine in February 2025 has been closely analysed, especially by U.S. allies. This development has once again raised critical questions about the reliability of American commitments to the defence of its allies including Taiwan which is heavily dependent on American support to deal with China. The same sentiments were expressed by Chinese military officer in 1996 that “In the end you care more about Los Angeles than you do about Taipei.”

Taiwan is closely monitoring the developments in Ukraine. There are notable similarities between Ukraine and Taiwan. Both share deep linguistic, ethnic, and historical ties with their aggressor states. Taiwan and Ukraine face threats from larger authoritarian neighbour’s who reject their independent identities. Additionally, both leverage their democratic status to gain international support and legitimacy. As a result, the US-Ukraine rift under the Trump administration has raised notable questions on the credibility of US as an ally. The change become more apparent when Trump administration has maintained ambiguity whenever asked what will the US policies in case of China decided to attack on Taiwan.

There has been change in the US policies which will have impact on the global order. Analysts suggest Trump prioritizes transactional diplomacy over democratic values, potentially using Taiwan as a bargaining chip. As Professor Huang Kwei-bo of National Chengchi University warned, Taiwan should not assume that Trump would commit U.S. troops to its defense without explicit guarantees. Moreover, Trump’s view of allies as "free riders" rather than strategic partners signals a shift in alliance politics. He has criticized Taiwan’s 2.5% defense spending, suggesting it should rise to 10% of GDP. These dynamics have led to growing uncertainty in Taiwan. What was once dismissed as alarmist—"Today’s Ukraine, tomorrow’s Taiwan"—is now replaced by anxiety over becoming a “discarded child” in U.S. foreign policy. These statements are particularly hold important for Taiwan because it is totally dependent on the US for its diplomatic and operational support.  Taiwan’s public and policy makers at large believe that there can be no military operations by China for forecefull takeover of Taiwan, particularly because of the US security commitment.

Soon after this, there has been increase in the military drills around Taiwan which are carried by China. China has long conducted military drills around Taiwan, intended to reinforce its claim that Taiwan is an integral part of its territory. These drills also serve to demonstrate coordination between China’s naval and air forces, particularly in scenarios involving a potential blockade of Taiwan. The largest ever naval exercise was carried out by China in March 2025 named as “Strait Tunder-2025A drills.” The focus of the se drills were particularly to have coordination of Airforce and Navy to block central and Southern Taiwan.

All these events will have implications for India also. Taiwan's continued autonomy is a crucial component of maintaining security and stability in the Indo-Pacific region, in which India can also play an important role. In June 2019, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasized the region’s significance by stating, “The Indo-Pacific is an inalienable part of our existence; it has been our lifeline and also the highway for trade and prosperity.” This highlights India’s growing strategic interest and positions it as a potential key partner in shaping a new international order and signalling support for regional balance, including toward Taiwan.

Although India officially adheres to the “One China Policy” which remains a major limiting factor in formal India–Taiwan relations, there have been notable developments in bilateral ties of two nations. For example, establishment of Taiwan-India Cooperation Council, India media coverage of Taiwan’s national day and so on. Two key considerations emerge from this context: first, that India’s strategic choices in the Indo-Pacific are becoming more assertive; and second, that engagement with Taiwan, even informally, serves broader geopolitical and economic interests aligned with a stable regional order. It is also important to note he that since 2010, India has maintained strategic ambiguity with regard to its “One China Policy.” In addition to it, there has been exchange of congratulatory note and greetings between PM Modi and President Lai on twitter which shows growing of informal engagement between two nations. It can be concluded that , given India’s strategic caution toward provoking China, a formal revision of the One-China Policy remains unlikely. India continues to prioritize economic cooperation with Taiwan, with bilateral trade reaching USD 8.2 billion in 2023-a 26.6% increase.

To expand its influence, India should look beyond Track II and Track 1.5 diplomacy, and adopt a more nuanced and proactive engagement strategy with Taiwan within a multilateral Indo-Pacific framework

India can enhance its ties with Taiwan through defense diplomacy, which extends beyond traditional military exercises to include training, logistics cooperation, and academic exchanges. India has previously used its military for international engagement through disaster relief, peacekeeping, and officer training programs. While India’s official stance on the One-China Policy remains unchanged, the shifting geopolitical landscape indicates a more flexible and pragmatic approach in its engagement with Taiwan. Strengthening bilateral cooperation in economic, defence, and non-traditional security sectors could yield strategic benefits for both nations while maintaining regional diplomatic equilibrium. Enhanced defence collaboration would not only facilitate mutual learning but also foster a stronger strategic confluence in times of crisis.

Moreover, China has consistently extended economic, diplomatic, and political support to Pakistan despite India’s concerns. Given this precedent, it is imperative for India to deepen ties with like-minded nations to promote a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific, aligned with the UN mandate.

Experience real-world national security education, led by seasoned ex-Defence professionals and strategic thinkers at School of Defence andStrategic Studies (SDSS) , Sri Balaji University, Pune